"I have been in business for nearly 20 years, and I have never encountered such difficulties this year." A sinotruk heavy truck dealer said helplessly that he was unable to cope with the current dark moment. The economy is becoming more and more difficult, and the sales of heavy trucks are difficult to recover. Since the sales volume of heavy trucks reached the peak in March last year, it has declined for 17 consecutive months. Some people have not survived this winter.
Recently, Kajia Consulting Research Institute released the Research Report on Truck Home howo Heavy Truck Dealer, which analyzes the heavy truck data from July 2020 to June 2022 and the overall changes of dealers in various regions in half a year, so as to better understand the present and explore the future.
Heavy truck market entered the "cold winter" market downturn
Since July 2021, the heavy truck market has entered a "dark moment". From the sales trend, we can also see that after the sinotruck heavy truck market continued to grow at a high speed in the first half of 2021, it suddenly entered a downward range from July, and the sales volume fell precipitously. After entering 2022, the heavy truck market failed to overturn against the wind, and the downward trend was further expanded, making the market cold.
China's heavy truck market has entered the era of intensive development after passing the "era of extensive growth". The traditional energy market has also entered the fierce stock market competition from the incremental market. Many factors have seriously restricted users' desire to buy and change cars. End users' expectations of the freight market are still weak, and the heavy truck market has a bleak prospect.
Economic recession and transport industry depression: influenced by epidemic situation and international factors in recent two years, domestic consumption and investment have continued to decline. Data shows that China's manufacturing PMI has also failed to achieve a high level. In recent months, it has been below the boom and bust line, and the domestic economy has not yet emerged from recession. The decline of the overall economic situation also has an impact on the logistics and transportation industry. The reduction of the supply of goods has led to a decline in customers' willingness to buy cars.
Digestion of inventory affects the sales of new cars: In the first half of 2021, the heavy truck market will develop explosively and many dealers will stock up in large quantities, stimulated by factors such as the switch from the 6th National Day to the 6th National Day, which will lead to the priority of dealers to deal with the overstock inventory when the market is cold, and the sales of new cars will be squeezed.
High oil prices and low freight costs have hit users' willingness to buy cars: at this stage, the domestic heavy truck market is almost saturated, and most regions have a situation of more cars and less goods. With the influence of malicious price suppression on some network platforms, the freight industry is heavily involved, and the freight costs continue to decline; In addition, with the increase of fuel charges this year, it is increasingly difficult for the card users to make money, so they are less and less motivated to buy cars.
At present, the heavy truck industry has fallen into a "dark moment", and no one can predict when the inflection point will occur. The heavy truck dealers related to it are also facing the test of survival.
The sales volume is at the bottom, and the dealer is at the edge of the cliff
The realization of invoicing action reflects the inventory digestion progress of heavy truck dealers, and the change of invoicing sales volume is a more specific reflection of heavy truck sales. Kajia collected and sorted out the invoicing data of national heavy truck dealers, which once again confirmed the difficult situation of heavy truck dealers. As far as the overall performance of the country is concerned, due to the cold market of heavy trucks and the declining willingness of users to buy cars, many heavy truck dealers are still dealing with the backlog of vehicles, and the overall sales scale is bleak.
The number of invoiced dealers declined precipitously: similar to the sales trend of heavy trucks, the number of invoiced dealers declined precipitously in July 2021. From July 2020 to June 2021, the number of heavy card dealers who have invoiced every month in the country fluctuated steadily in the range of 3000-3500. From July 2021 to June 2022, the number of heavy card dealers who have invoiced every month dropped to the range of 2000-2500, a total drop of 1000. This data can show that after July 2021, there will be about 1000 enterprises that will not purchase cars from manufacturers after they have digested the inventory. This shows the great pressure on heavy truck inventory.
Overall downward movement of dealers' sales scale: after July 2021, the overall downward movement of the sales scale of all dealers of heavy trucks. Compared with the second half of 2020, 70% of dealers sold less than 50 units in the first half of this year, of which the proportion of dealers selling more than 500 units dropped from 6.6% to 2.8%, and the proportion of dealers selling more than 300 units dropped from 12.9% to 0.6%.
In terms of regions, dealers in seven major regions across the country have been seriously affected, but specifically, the degree of influence varies in different regions.
The total number of invoicing dealers in the northeast and southwest regions decreased significantly: the total number of invoicing dealers in the northeast region decreased the most, from 316 to 243, with a decline of 23.1%. The decline in other regions ranked from the highest to the lowest, respectively 22.2% in the southwest region, 19.8% in the northwest region, 19.5% in the north region, 19.4% in the east region, 19% in the central region, and the minimum decline in the south region was 10.9%.
The sales volume of dealers in South China, Southwest China and Northeast China has decreased seriously: in this "cold winter", the sales volume of dealers in South China has decreased seriously. In the first half of 2022, the proportion of dealers with sales volume below 50 will reach 82.6%, up 44.9% compared with the first half of 2021. The sales volume of dealers with less than 50 sets in the southwest and northeast regions accounted for 76.6% and 73.3% respectively, with an increase of 32.3% and 37.1% respectively.
Heavy truck dealers have said that in this downward market period, it is more important to "survive" than "survive". Through a large number of interviews, we found that heavy truck dealers at all levels from top to bottom are facing difficulties, and the future is uncertain.
For the first level dealers, due to the recent decline in sales, which is far less than expected, the market is weak. A large number of first level dealers have overstocked inventory, and excessive asset burden and difficulties in capital chain circulation have become the main difficulties for dealers; At the same time, due to the sales setback, it is difficult to repay the bank's financial loans, which is another big mountain on the dealers.
For secondary dealers, the operation cost is far lower than that of primary dealers due to their asset light characteristics and the process of reordering vehicles after receiving orders. Therefore, in the "cold winter" of the market, the main pressure comes from the sudden decrease of car ordering users due to multiple factors such as epidemic situation, market environment, and rising fuel costs. The sales data is "under great pressure".
We understand that at present, heavy truck dealers experience double pressures of sales volume and payment collection. Most dealers (mainly primary dealers) give priority to paying a certain proportion of the down payment for buyout vehicles when they stock vehicles, choose the manufacturer's finance or bank finance to make the final payment, and promise to complete the collection within a certain period. However, in the current downturn of the market, it is difficult to clean up the inventory vehicles. Dealers bear huge pressure on capital and payment collection. In addition to the daily operating costs, dealers are trapped in the test of life and death.
Both internal and external dealers expect to break the situation
Faced with such a severe situation, what can dealers do to survive the "dark moment"? Breaking the game requires both internal and external efforts. With the strong external support of the OEMs, we will explore breakthrough channels internally to jointly face the current difficulties and preserve the hope of future growth.
First of all, on the product side, OEMs should identify the situation, practice their internal skills and introduce products that adapt to the market trend. Although the heavy truck market is relatively sluggish as a whole, there is still room to find it in the market segment. As long as it can follow the trend, create products with market competitiveness based on market trends and user needs, use product power to dispel users' concerns, and take the initiative to seize a larger "cake" when the overall market share is difficult to expand.
New energy trend: with the promotion of the dual carbon target, the new energy development direction of commercial vehicles has become the trend of the times. 15333. The release of the future new energy strategy of Photosynthesis, cross-border cooperation with relevant technology companies and battery enterprises, and the listing and batch delivery of hydrogen fuel and pure electric products have all attracted more attention in the new energy field.
Fierce high-end competition: In the first half of 2022, all OEMs will launch new high-end platforms, which can help dealers achieve better sales performance with their own excellent product performance while improving the competitiveness of the high-end market. We are familiar with the high-end platform of FAW Jiefang "Yingtu", the high-end platform of Heavy Truck "C9H", and the high-end platform of Oman "Galaxy", which have all achieved technological empowerment, made new thinking about the needs and pain points of target users, and launched highly competitive products from the perspective of users.
Secondly, on the server side, after the message of "90 billion yuan of truck loans issued by central auto enterprises, requiring banks and enterprises to jointly delay the repayment of principal and interest for half a year" was released at the executive meeting of the State Council, FAW Jiefang, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, Dongfeng Liuqi, Shaanxi Automobile Heavy Duty Truck, Futian Oman and other companies launched financial policies on deferred repayment, which helped users with heavy loan repayment pressure, improved brand popularity, and to a certain extent improved their willingness to buy cars, It has become a shot in the arm to boost market confidence.
In addition to cooperating with the measures of the OEMs, dealers should also "refuse to lie down and hibernate", take the initiative from their own point of view, expand sales channels and increase sales means to improve sales performance and achieve a breakthrough.
Broaden sales channels: dealers around the country need to pay close attention to large bidding conferences held by governments and enterprises, seize the opportunity to improve sales, and increase the feasibility of continuing cooperation in the future; In addition, at the moment when the Internet is booming, we should achieve technological innovation and mode innovation, broaden marketing channels, and promote marketing through short video platforms and e-commerce platforms to save operating costs, improve brand awareness and drive the growth of terminal sales.
Increase sales means: At present, heavy truck users have low consumption intentions. Dealers can attract users to watch and buy cars by introducing free maintenance times, free engine oil, air filter and other maintenance accessories, reducing or exempting working hours, holding lottery activities, and giving VIP experience activities.
"I have been in business for nearly 20 years, and I have never encountered such difficulties this year." A heavy truck dealer said helplessly that he was unable to cope with the current dark moment. However, in the face of the development trend of the industry, all heavy truck dealers have no way out for a long time. Only by carrying on hard can we usher in the distant dawn